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The crisis over Turkey-Cyprus road project: Six Questions
Rishika Yadav

What happened?
Cyprus, nestled in the eastern Mediterranean, boasts a rich history marked by intricate cultural, political, and religious dynamics. 

On 22 August, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s President, rebuked UN peacekeepers (UNFICYP) for obstructing a road project in ethnically divided Cyprus, branding it “unacceptable” and alleging bias against Turkish Cypriots. Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, said: “threats to the safety of UN peacekeepers and damage to UN property are unacceptable and may constitute serious crimes under international law.” President Erdogan stated that denying Turkish Cypriots access to Pyla infringes on their rights and criticized the peacekeepers for compromising their impartiality. Erdogan said: “What is expected of the United Nations peacekeeping force is that it does justice to its name and contributes to finding a solution to the humanitarian needs of all sides on the island.” 

On 19 August, Turkish Cypriots clashed with international peacekeepers; the latter had halted the construction of a road encroaching upon the island's UN-monitored buffer zone. On 17 August, the UN mission in Cyprus said that it would prevent the construction of a road by Turkish Cypriots that would breach the UN-controlled buffer zone, potentially escalating tensions. 

What is the road project all about?
On 17 August, the construction of the road project began, when Turkish Cypriot security personnel, alongside a civilian contractor, commenced construction near the Pergamos checkpoint within the buffer zone. Turkish Cypriot authorities aim to connect Pyla/Pile village in the UN-controlled buffer zone to their territory, emphasizing improved access and mobility for Turkish Cypriot residents. They assert their right to develop their sovereign territory's infrastructure autonomously. However, Greek Cypriot authorities and the UN peacekeeping force oppose the project, citing disruption to the buffer zone's status quo and jeopardized peace prospects.

What is the problem?
Two prominent ethnic groups, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, distinguish the island with diverse linguistic, religious, and historical roots. The island's division since 1974, triggered by Turkey's intervention in response to a Greek Cypriot nationalist coup, has led to the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus controlling the south and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus reigning in the north, albeit recognized solely by Turkey. UNFICYP and the buffer zone maintain separation, despite failed attempts at reunification.

The current road project discord reflects the persistent tensions between the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities. Turkish Cypriots seek to link Arsos (a village in Turkish Cypriot territory) to Pyla (Greek Cypriot-Turkish village), within the buffer zone to their territory, aiming to uplift conditions for their residents. The status quo in the buffer zone is maintained by a 1974 UN mandate, which faces disruption in the middle of road disputes. However, Greek Cypriots and UNFICYP denounced the endeavour, citing buffer zone disruption and jeopardized peace efforts. Accusations of Turkish Cypriot forces clashing with UN personnel and damaging vehicles complicate matters further. 

What is UNFICYP? And what is its involvement?
Established in 1964, the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) serves to prevent conflicts between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, distinct in ethnicity, language, and faith. UNFICYP upholds law and order, aids humanitarian efforts, and supports negotiations to resolve the Cyprus problem. Since its deployment after the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus, UNFICYP's role has evolved significantly. Tasked with supervising the newly established 180-kilometer buffer zone, its initial focus was to prevent hostilities, oversee ceasefire lines, and aid displaced populations. UNFICYP orchestrated prisoner exchanges and facilitated movements of Cypriot communities between the north and south. High-level agreements in 1977 and 1979 for a bi-communal federal republic marked cooperative efforts. Yet, challenges emerged;, as in 1989, Greek Cypriot protests turned violent, straining relations and raising tensions. Adaptations continued, with a broader civilian component introduced in 1993. UNFICYP played a pivotal role in expanding crossing points in 2003, fostering personal connections and building trust. It supported peace negotiations in 2008 and grappled with the unsuccessful Switzerland summit in 2017, enduring increased tensions and incidents in the buffer zone. Throughout, UNFICYP has aimed to defuse conflicts, encourage cooperation, and uphold its mandate. UNFICYP's role in the current road project discord stems from its responsibility to patrol and oversee the 180-kilometer buffer zone dividing the island. This zone aims to prevent strife and maintain the status quo until a peaceful solution is achieved.

What are the issues?
First, complex regional dynamics. The road project initiative aligns with Turkey's forceful foreign policy, intertwined with ongoing disputes over maritime boundaries and energy reserves in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey's involvement in gas exploration and drilling activities near Cyprus' contested waters has intensified tensions, leading to standoffs and clashes involving Cyprus, Greece, France, and the EU. The road project also violates the UN resolutions and the buffer zone agreement, which prohibit any unilateral or military activities in the area. 

Second, socio-economic disparities. Turkish Cypriots lack international recognition, EU access, and struggle with development, infrastructure, education, health, and environment. Greek Cypriots, on the other hand, are benefited with  EU integration, but grapple with unemployment, debt, and corruption. These hurdles fuel frustration and pessimism among Cypriots about their island's future, eroding confidence-building measures. 

Third, conflicting perspectives. Turkish Cypriots advocate a two-state solution for sovereignty, while Greek Cypriots support a federal arrangement. Greek Cypriots suspect military motives, contrasting with Turkey's portrayal of the project as "humanitarian." Greek Cypriots accuse the Turkish Cypriot force of intimidation, undermining sovereignty and security by enabling Turkish military presence. The UN and international community favor a bi-communal and bi-zonal federation. For Turkish Cypriots, the project is essential, granting access and aiding Pyla/Pile village residents isolated from services. They argue sovereignty rights and minimal impact on the Greek Cypriot zone. They also urge project cessation, condemns attacks on UN personnel, and emphasizes UNFICYP's role. 

What about international actors?
France, critical of Turkey’s Mediterranean involvement, supports Cyprus’s sovereignty, condemning the road project as a breach of UN resolutions. It calls for Turkey to respect UNFICYP’s role, urging dialogue with Greek Cypriots. 

The UK, a guarantor power and Cyprus’ base-area holder, expresses concern over the project’s security impact and settlement prospects. It supports dialogue, aiding reconciliation efforts. 

The EU, having Cyprus as a member despite the Annan Plan rejection, backs the Republic and Greece in their maritime disputes with Turkey. It denounces the road project as a hindrance to peace, reaffirms UNFICYP’s mandate, and supports bi-zonal, bi-communal federation for settlement. External actors’ stances influence both sides, with France and the EU aligning more with Greek Cypriots, while the UK strives for equilibrium. 

War in Ukraine: Day 548
Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 27 August, the second ship previously blocked in Ukraine due to Russia’s aggression successfully entered Romania’s territorial waters. On August 26, the bulk carrier PRIMUS, flagged under Liberia, left Odesa Port, marking the second such departure post- grain deal termination. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, confirmed this while expressing gratitude to those involved in ensuring freedom of navigation. The vessel, laden with steel for African clients, had been stranded in Ukraine since February 2022.

On 27 August, according to Ukrinform, Oleksandr Shtupun, Ukraine’s Defence Forces spokesperson of Tavria direction, said that Ukraine’s defence forces are advancing. The advancement is towards Novoprokopivka, in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Despite tough conditions, advancements occurred in the Urozhayne, Robotyne, Melitopol, and Berdiansk sectors. Russia’s pressure on the Avdiyivka and Maryinka fronts was unsuccessful, with 17 captives taken. 

On 27 August, Serhiy Popko, Chief of Kyiv City Military Administration, confirmed of Ukraine’s air defence forces effectively neutralized Russia’s targets advancing towards Kyiv. Russia’s Tu-95 strategic bombers launched Kh-101/555/55 missiles from the Caspian. No casualties or damage in Kyiv were reported. Specifics about downed targets will be shared by the Air Force after verification.

On 26 August, according to Ukrinform, a tragic incident occurred on 25 August, as two L-39 combat training aircraft collided mid-air in Zhytomyr region, resulting in the loss of three pilots’ lives. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office initiated a criminal proceeding for a flight rule violation. The Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigations is conducting the pre-trial investigation, while the Air Force of Ukraine confirmed the crash and pilot casualties. Notably, a prominent pilot from the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade, known as JUICE, was among the victims.

On 26 August, according to Ukrinform, two innocent civilians lost their lives due to Russia’s attack on the Kupiansk district in the Kharkiv region. This incident occurred as Russia’s projectiles struck a cafe with people present, resulting in two deaths and one injury. Oleh Syniehubov, Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Head, reported the incident on Telegram.

On 26 August, according to Ukrainska Pravda, Oleksii Makeiev, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany, attributed the slower pace of the current Ukraine’s defence counteroffensive to delays in Western weapons supply. Makeiev emphasized that Russia had utilized the time to fortify positions. He highlighted prolonged efforts in training and equipping Ukraine’s assault brigades with Western weaponry. Makeiev engaged in substantial negotiations with Germany for Taurus missiles and stressed the importance of F-16 fighter jets due to Ukraine’s limited airspace control. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 27 August, Russia’s defence ministry reported Russia deploying a fighter aircraft to prevent a US Air Force reconnaissance drone from entering its airspace over the Black Sea. The foreign UAV changed its course upon the approach of Russia's fighter, avoiding any violation of Russia's border.

On 27 August, Russia's Investigative Committee confirmed the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, after a plane crash. Formal genetic analysis identified all ten victims, including Dmitry Utkin, suspected Wagner operations manager, on the Embraer jet. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, dismissed foul play claims on Russia. Air traffic violation investigation is underway; the cause of the crash remains undisclosed.

On 26 August, the Russian Defence Ministry’s report highlighted ongoing progress in their military operation. In the Kupyansk sector, Zapad Group units, aided by aviation and artillery, improved their position, thwarting five attacks by Ukraine’s detachments. Zaporizhzhia saw three of Ukraine's attempts countered by Russia’s forces. The Donetsk direction saw successful defence against six AFU assault groups. The Tsentr Group halted attacks near Chervonaya Dibrova, while the Vostok Group held against two attacks, and the Kherson direction saw losses for Ukraine. Russia’s forces destroyed numerous military assets, including radar stations and unmanned aerial vehicles.

On 26 August, Sergey Sobyanin, Moscow Mayor, stated that an attack drone heading towards Moscow was successfully intercepted by Russia’s Air Defence Forces. The incident occurred in the Istra district. Fortunately, no casualties or damage were reported, according to preliminary information shared by Sobyanin.

On 26 August, according to The Moscow Times, Russia reported shooting down two approaching drones, one near Moscow and another near the Belgorod border. The surge in attacks on Russia and Crimea coincides with Kyiv’s intent to expand conflict towards Russia. In the Belgorod region, Ukraine's shelling injured six in Urazovo, near the border. Vyacheslav Gladkov, Governor of Belgorod Oblast, accused Ukraine of using cluster munitions, causing residential damage and serious civilian injuries.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  
On 26 August, the UK’s Ministry of Defence updated that while Ukraine’s counter-offensive pressures Russia’s forces in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine; Russia’s Western Group of Forces continues small-scale attacks in the Kupiansk-Lyman area, achieving limited advances. The Ministry analysed that as Ukraine gains ground in the south, Russia may shift its strategy towards a potential operational-level offensive, focusing on the Kupiansk-Lyman axis to create a buffer zone around Luhansk Oblast.

References
“Second vessel leaves Odesa Port after Russia’s grain deal exit,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2023
“Second vessel reaches Romania’s waters after navigating through Black Sea corridor,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2023
“Defense forces advancing towards Novoprokopivka, Mala Tokmachka, Ocheretuvate in Zaporizhzhia region,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2023
“All Russian missiles intercepted on approach to Kyiv overnight Sunday - capital authorities,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2023
“Air defenses in action on approaches to Kyiv as Russia launches cruise missiles,” Ukrinform, 27 August 2023
“Two training aircraft collide in Zhytomyr region. Three pilots killed,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2023
“Two civilians killed as Russians attack café in Kharkiv region’s village,” Ukrinform, 26 August 2023
“Ambassador to Germany calls delays in military assistance main reason for slow counteroffensive,” Ukrainska Pravda, 26 August 2023
“Ukraine's Defence Minister confident that Germany will provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles,” Ukrainska Pravda, 26 August 2023
“Russia Says Scrambled Fighter Plane To Deter US Drone Over Black Sea,” Barron’s, 27 August 2023
“Wagner Boss Prigozhin’s Death Confirmed by Russian Investigators – Moscow,” The Moscow Times, 27 August 2023
“Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (26 August 2023),” Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 26 August 2023
“Air defenses down attack drone approaching Moscow, says Mayor Sobyanin,” TASS, 26 August 2023
“Air defenses down attack drone approaching Moscow, says Mayor Sobyanin,” TASS, 26 August 2023
“Russia Says Downs 2 Drones as Ukrainian Shelling Wounds 6,” The Moscow View, 26 August 2023
Liliana Botnariuc, Jürgen Dahlkamp, Jörg Diehl, Matthias Gebauer, Hubert Gude, Roman Höfner, Martin Knobbe, Roman Lehberger, Frederik Obermaier, Jan Puhl, Alexandra Rojkov, Marcel Rosenbach, Fidelius Schmid, Sandra Sperber, Thore Schröder, Thomas Schulz, Gerald Traufetter, Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt und Jean-Pierre Ziegler, “All the Evidence Points To Kyiv,” Spiegel International, 26 August 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 26 August 2023,” UK’s Ministry of Defence, 26 August 2023

In Brief
Genesy Balasingam 

DENMARK
Illicit trade increases gang violence
On 27 August, a 30-year-old man was killed, and four others were injured in a shooting in the Copenhagen district known for its counterculture ambience and thriving hashish trade. Poul  Kjeldsen, Copenhagen police spokesman, informed Danish media that two masked shooters  opened fire inside a building in the Christiania neighbourhood. According to Kjeldsen, the shooting was linked to criminal gangs. Since the 1970s, when hippies began squatting at a decommissioned naval base, Christiania has been a freewheeling anarchist commune.  Authorities tolerated hashish sales there until 2004, when police began to crack down on the illicit trade. Nonetheless, the hashish trade has continued, with occasional outbreaks of violence associated with criminal gangs. (“1 killed, 4 wounded in shooting in Copenhagen’s  Christiania neighborhood, police in Denmark say,” Associated Press, 27 August 2023)

FRANCE
Religious garments banned to promote secularism 
On 27 August, Gabriel Attal, France’s Education Minister, stated that the Islamic garment known as the abaya will be prohibited in schools. France outlawed religious symbols in schools in 2004, including huge crosses, Jewish kippahs, and Islamic headscarves. However, the abaya exists in a grey area and is not explicitly prohibited. The emphasis on abayas comes in the wake of an upsurge in girls wearing Islamic dress in French schools; a trend that critics claim violates the country’s secularist norms. Religious minorities, according to critics, experience prejudice in a historically Christian society. In 2020, a radicalized Chechen refugee killed a French teacher who had presented cartoons of the prophet Mohammad in class, exacerbating tensions over education and religion. (Clea Caulcutt, “French education minister announces ban on Islamic dress in schools,” Politico, 27 August 2023)

“It’s the end of Renaissance” states Socialist Party
On 27 August, Gerald Darmanin, France’s strong Interior Minister offered a stark warning about the risk of far-right icon Marine Le Pen winning the presidency in the next election, while bolstering his own goal to follow Emmanuel Macron, France’s President in 2027. Darmanin, who is still only 40 years old, leads what is now a super-ministry of the interior that also oversees France’s global overseas territories. He’s made a name for himself as a tough-talking right wing personality. Polls reveal that public discontent is growing over problems such as immigration, security, and the expense of living, which her National Rally (RN) party is increasingly confident of exploiting. According to the daily Le Monde, Darmanin decided to emancipate himself and go on the offensive after being rejected for the position of prime monitor. Darmanin’s political style is reminiscent of his mentor, Nicolas Sarkozy, former President, who similarly opened his presidential campaign with a hyperactive tenure as a tough interior minister. (“French Interior Minister Darmanin warns of risk of Le Pen victory in next election,” France 24, 27 August 2023)

GERMANY
Storm causes boundless damage in a small town 
On 27 August, a storm with huge hailstones damaged four-fifths of the structures in a town in the southern German state of Bavaria. Police in Kissing, just outside Augsburg, reported that 12 people were hurt when a beer tent they were attempting to erect was blown over. Wind also broke wooden slats off the roof, while hail caused noticeable damage to the facade of a residential house. The biggest damage looked to be in Bad Bayersoien, with roughly 1,300 inhabitants. The country was struck by hailstones of up to 8 centimetres which damaged parked automobiles and cracked roof tiles and attic skylights. According to reports, 80 per cent of the buildings were severely damaged, but no one was injured.  (“Large hailstones cause extensive damage in a small German town as a storm hits Bavaria,” Associated Press, 27 August 2023)

Turmoil in coalition government
On 27 August, OIaf Scholz, German Chancellor promised that his coalition government would rapidly resolve a dispute over child payments that has hampered efforts to end months of destructive public infighting. Scholz, a center-left Social Democrat, leads a coalition of three socially liberal parties. However, his two junior partners, the ecological, usually left-leaning Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats, frequently disagree on economic and other issues. The two fought bitterly earlier this year over a proposal to replace fossil-fuel home heating systems, which contributed to the government’s low poll ratings. Top officials had planned to show a more united front following summer but turmoil emerged when the Green minister for families, Lisa Paus blocked a plan by Finance Minister Christian Lindner for tax  relief for companies, meant to help Germany’s stuttering economy. (“Germany’s Scholz vows a quick resolution to his coalition government’s latest  standoff,” Associated Press, 27 August 2023)

GREECE
Nine-day wildfire continues to stay ablaze 
On 27 August, a wildfire near the northeastern Greek region of Evros which was blazing for nine days was unlikely to be contained. According to the European Commission, the fire, which threatens Greece’s Dadia national park, is the largest single fire in EU history. Significant wildfires were also seen on the suburbs of Athens and on the Aegean island of Andros. Winds are predicted to shift, potentially spreading the flames much further this week. The government has ordered an evacuation. Climate change, according to European Union officials, is to blame for the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires in southern Europe. After 2017, last year was the second-worst year on record for wildfire devastation.  (“Greece: Evros fire 'cannot be contained' — regional official,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2023)

ITALY
Lampedusa: A migrant hotspot 
On 27 August, according to Italian media, 4,121 migrants and refugees were believed to be in the Lampedusa hotspot. Authorities are seeking to relocate the majority of the new arrivals to various districts throughout Italy. A total of 1,918 people arrived on the island in 65 different landings the day before, with another 1,798 arriving in 45 landings. Only two groups of migrants fled from Mahdia and one from Susa, Tunisia, according to the majority of the refugees. Filippo Romano, the Prefect of the Agrigento province, stated that “Lampedusa can no longer receive refugees.” The majority of the migrants had already been transferred by the Italian authorities because the facility cannot accommodate many people on a long run. (“Lampedusa under pressure after record-breaking migrant arrivals,” Euronews, 27 August 2023)

ROMANIA
Explosions hit unauthorized gas stations 
On 27 August, two explosions shook a gas station in Crevedia, Romania, just northwest of the city, Bucharest. Authorities are currently investigating the event. Two people were killed and at least 56 others were injured in two explosions at a petrol station. The two explosions happened at a liquefied petroleum station (LPG) in Crevedia which was not authorized to operate. Raed Arafat, state secretary of the Interior Ministry, stated that the region must be evaluated as it remains hazardous. (“Romania: Deadly explosions hit gas station near  Bucharest,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2023)

THE UK 
Conservative lawmakers strongly criticises Sunak’s leadership before quitting 
On 27 August, Nadine Dorries, UK’s Member of Parliament, launched a harsh attack on Rishi Sunak, the Conservative Party’s leader, accusing him of running a “zombie parliament” and without political direction. This came after a series of scandals drove Boris Johnson, former Prime Minister, to resign, and economic difficulties forced his successor, Liz Truss, to resign after only six weeks. Sunak has attempted to rebuild his party’s legitimacy through technocratic leadership. However, with high inflation, economic stagnation, industrial unrest, and long wait times for the state-run health care system. His Conservatives are trailing Labour in polls ahead of the upcoming election. Dorries commented, “In your impatience to become Prime Minister, you put your personal ambition above the stability of the country and our economy.” (“Conservative UK lawmaker formally quits with scathing attack on PM  Sunak,” Reuters, 27 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL 
EU plans new anti-terror missions in Gulf of Guinea 
On 27 August, according to Deutsche Welle, the EU will undertake a new mission in West Africa this fall. The combined military-civilian operation will seek to prevent the spread of unrest caused by jihadi groups. The mission will aim to train and advise local security forces, assist in the preparation of anti-terror operations, provide technical assistance, and implement security-related confidence-building measures. The EU is concerned that Islamist militants  would “extend their activities in West Africa from the Sahel zone to the southern coastal  countries on the Gulf of Guinea, leading to even more widespread instability in the region.” The EU also seeks to fight Russian influence in the region, which has been spread by Wagner mercenaries who have supported Sahelian military governments. The collapse of Niger to junta control has been especially troubling because it had been a crucial ally to Western countries working in the region. The EU’s situation deteriorated further when Mali expelled French and German servicemen that had been training Malian military and police. (“EU planning new Africa mission in Gulf of Guinea — report,” Deutsche Welle, 27 August 2023)